[Edaily Reporter Park Sun-Yeop ] Although memory semiconductor stocks such as SamsungElectronics(005930)and SK hynix(000660) have recently undergone a sharp correction, analysts suggest that concerns over NAND flash prices—which triggered the decline—have already been largely factored into current valuations. With DRAM prices continuing to rise and big tech companies expanding their investments in artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure, the current stock prices are seen as an opportunity to buy at a low point.
Kim Young-geon, an analyst at MIRAE ASSET SECURITIES, stated in a report on the 23rd, “The recent decline in global memory semiconductor stocks is primarily driven by the possibility of falling NAND prices in the second half of 2027, rather than weakened earnings expectations or supply-demand disruptions caused by leveraged products.” He added, “Since the cause of the stock price decline has been identified and the market has undergone a sufficient correction, we recommend buying on the dip based on fundamentals such as yield rates.”

Recently, stock prices in the semiconductor sector have fallen by around 30% compared to their peak on the 20th of last month. This is due to market research firm TrendForce’s forecast that contract prices for NAND TLC and QLC wafers will decline starting in the third quarter of 2027. The projected quarterly price declines are 9.4% in the third quarter of 2027 and 15.4% in the fourth quarter.
The backdrop to the bearish outlook for NAND prices is an easing of supply constraints. While the growth rate of bit shipments for enterprise solid-state drives (SSDs) is expected to slow starting in the third quarter of 2027, SamsungElectronics, SK hynix, and Kioxia are also scheduled to bring new production capacity online.
Accordingly, MIRAE ASSET SECURITIES expects the NAND supply-demand balance to shift from a 10.8% supply shortage in the first quarter of this year to a 1.1% supply surplus in the third quarter of 2027 and a 12.2% surplus in the fourth quarter. However, the firm noted that recent stock price adjustments have already largely factored in the expected decline in NAND prices, and it assessed that the scale of supply expansion is not sufficient to cause a severe surplus.
Unlike NAND, DRAM prices are forecast to continue their upward trend through the end of next year. Contract prices for 16-gigabit (Gb) DDR4 and DDR5 are estimated to rise by an additional 43% and 38%, respectively, by December 2027 compared to this month’s levels.
Although the smartphone market is expected to contract this year and see limited recovery in 2027, the analysis suggests that continued growth in the server market will offset this decline. The year-over-year growth rate for server shipments in 2027 is projected to reach 17%, an increase from this year’s rate.
Improved profitability for High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) is another positive factor. MIRAE ASSET SECURITIES forecasts that the 2027 price of HBM4—currently under negotiation—will be more than 2.5 times higher than this year’s price. Since HBM requires a greater amount of wafer input than standard DRAM, an increase in its production share also has the effect of constraining overall DRAM supply.
Increased capital expenditures by Big Tech companies are also expected to support memory demand. Alphabet raised its midpoint capital expenditure guidance for this year to $200 billion, up from previous forecasts. Its order backlog, which stood at $468 billion in the previous quarter, increased to $514 billion in the second quarter.
Combined, Alphabet and Oracle’s order backlogs total approximately $2.2 trillion, which is 20 times the combined quarterly revenue of the two companies. Analyst Kim stated, “As long as the order backlog remains robust, capital expenditures by Big Tech companies are bound to continue,” adding, “Microsoft and Amazon are also highly likely to increase their investment levels.”
Analysts note that the sharp drop in stock prices has also increased the attractiveness of these companies’ valuations and dividends. Over the past month, SamsungElectronics and SK hynix have fallen by approximately 26% and 37%, respectively, from their recent highs. Consequently, their 12-month forward price-to-book ratios (PBR) have dropped to 1.8x and 4.4x, respectively, while their price-to-earnings ratios (PER) have fallen to 2.7x and 5.1x.
In particular, analysts note that SamsungElectronics has entered a price range where its dividend yield—including expected dividends—reaches 7.9% for common stock and 11.1% for preferred stock. MIRAE ASSET SECURITIES maintained its target prices for SamsungElectronics and SK hynix at 550,000 won and 4.2 million won, respectively, stating, “With concerns over falling NAND prices now priced in, it is time to increase exposure based on the strength of DRAM prices.”