[Edaily Reporter KIM YOON-JEONG ] While semiconductor stocks have paused for a breather, cosmetics stocks are surging sharply. Since the beginning of this month, the stock prices of COSMAX, INC., KOLMAR KOREA, and SILICON 2 Co.,Ltd. have jumped by more than 50%, and over the past month, related exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have also risen by as much as 38%. With strong second-quarter earnings followed by a series of upward revisions to third-quarter earnings forecasts, attention is focused on whether this upward trend will continue.

According to MP Doctor on the 26th, COSMAX, INC.(192820)has risen 55.26% this month, from 185,500 won to 288,000 won. KOLMAR KOREA(161890)has jumped 53.72%, from 96,800 won to 148,800 won, and SILICON 2 Co.,Ltd.(257720)has surged 50.14%, from 34,500 won to 51,800 won. APR(278470)also rose 30.77%, from 338,000 won to 442,000 won.
During the same period, AMOREPACIFIC CORPORATION(090430)rose 10.55%, and LG H&H(051900)rose 9.70%. In contrast, leading semiconductor stocks SamsungElectronics(005930)and SK hynix(000660)rose only 9.19% and 7.72%, respectively.
Related ETFs are also performing strongly. Over the past month, the “SOL Cosmetics TOP3 Plus” ETF rose 38.71%, while the “TIGER Cosmetics” and “HANARO K-Beauty” ETFs gained 32.24% and 26.84%, respectively. During the same period, the KOSPI rose 8.80% from 6,257.45 to 6,808.21, meaning cosmetics-related ETFs significantly outperformed the market.
◇Strong Q2 Earnings, Followed by Q3…Earnings Expectations Also ‘Soaring’
Earnings are driving the steep rise in cosmetics stocks. In particular, following strong second-quarter results, expectations for third-quarter earnings are rapidly rising.
According to financial information provider FnGuide Inc., as of the previous day (the 25th), the consensus estimates for APR’s third-quarter consolidated revenue this year stand at 772.1 billion won, with operating profit at 195.1 billion won. These figures are expected to increase by 100.1% and 103.0%, respectively, compared to the same period last year. The operating profit forecast has been revised upward by 2.1% from 191 billion won a month ago and by 12.6% from 173.2 billion won three months ago.
The upward revision in earnings forecasts for original design manufacturers (ODMs) is even more significant. The consensus estimate for COSMAX, INC.’s third-quarter operating profit stands at 67.6 billion won, up 24.3% from 54.4 billion won a month ago and 28.8% from 52.5 billion won three months ago. This represents a 58.2% increase compared to the same period last year. Revenue is also projected to rise 30.4% year-over-year to 763.8 billion won.
KOLMAR KOREA’s third-quarter operating profit forecast has also risen to 92 billion won, up 12.5% from a month ago and 17.3% from three months ago. This represents a 57.7% increase compared to the same period last year. SILICON 2 Co.,Ltd. is also expected to see third-quarter revenue and operating profit rise 46.8% and 38.1% year-over-year, to 439.5 billion won and 87.1 billion won, respectively.
Expectations for a recovery in earnings among major brand companies also continue. The consensus estimate for LG H&H’s third-quarter operating profit is 111.9 billion won, projected to rise 142.2% year-over-year. AMOREPACIFIC CORPORATION is also expected to see a 27.6% increase to 117.2 billion won. With profit growth anticipated across the board—from brand companies to ODMs and distributors—the strength in cosmetics stocks appears to be spreading throughout the entire sector.
Diversification of export markets is also supporting these earnings expectations. Cosmetics exports in the first half of this year totaled $6.98 billion, a 26.9% increase year-over-year, marking a record high for a half-year period. As companies reduce their reliance on China while expanding sales to markets such as the U.S. and Europe, expectations for the sustainable growth of K-Beauty are also rising.
◇High-Flying Cosmetics Stocks: “Separating the Wheat from the Chaff” Starting in the Third Quarter
According to securities industry analysts, as cosmetics stock prices have surged sharply in the short term, the key factor moving forward will be how well companies meet the market’s heightened expectations, rather than earnings growth itself.
Kim Myung-ju, an analyst at Korea Investment & Securities, noted, “The cosmetics sector has garnered attention as an alternative that helps mitigate market volatility, leading to explosive stock price gains in a short period,” adding, “Consequently, market expectations for corporate earnings in the second half of the year are now higher than they were in the first half.”
APR, in particular, is showing remarkable growth, with third-quarter sales projected to increase by 100.1% year-over-year. Analyst Kim assessed that while APR’s valuation has risen due to the recent stock price surge, it remains at an attractive level. SILICON 2 Co.,Ltd. is also expected to see strong earnings, supported by expanding sales in Central and South America and improved sales through iHerb in the second half of the year.
On the other hand, the heightened expectations themselves could weigh on stock prices. This is because even if earnings increase, volatility could rise—particularly among stocks that have surged sharply in the short term—if they fall short of market expectations.
Researcher Kim stated, “In the cosmetics sector, it is time to focus on companies with relatively low expectations for third-quarter earnings and attractive valuations.” Ultimately, the analysis suggests that in the second half of the year, rather than the entire sector rising in unison, stock price differentiation is likely to occur on a stock-by-stock basis, depending on whether expanded overseas sales translate into actual repeat orders and whether companies can maintain profitability.