[Edaily Reporter Shin Ha-yeon ] Despite downward revisions to earnings expectations due to the strengthening won, analysts have concluded that SamsungElectronics(005930)and SK hynix(000660)have ample room for stock price growth based on the growth potential of High-Bandwidth Memory (HBM). The outlook is that increased HBM adoption in artificial intelligence (AI) semiconductors and diversification of client bases will offset the burden of a weaker exchange rate.

Kim Young-geon, an analyst at MIRAE ASSET SECURITIES, raised SamsungElectronics’ target price by 8.1% from 370,000 won to 400,000 won on the 7th and maintained a “Buy” rating. He also raised SK hynix’s target price by 10.7% from 2.8 million won to 3.1 million won.

MIRAE ASSET SECURITIES lowered its forecast for the dollar-won exchange rate from 1,553 won to 1,400 won, revising down SamsungElectronics’ operating profit estimates for this year and next year by 5.7% and 4.2%, respectively. It also lowered its operating profit estimates for SK hynix by 4.8% and 5.6%, respectively. However, it raised the target price by increasing its forecast for the average selling price (ASP) of DRAM and expanding the range for calculating 12-month forward earnings.

SamsungElectronics’ operating profit for the third and fourth quarters of this year is projected to be 105.7 trillion won and 117.7 trillion won, respectively. Next year’s operating profit is estimated at 535.7 trillion won, a 44.8% increase from this year.

SamsungElectronics’ DRAM ASP is expected to rise by 16.5% and 5.4% quarter-over-quarter in the third and fourth quarters of this year, respectively, and to increase by 22.6% year-over-year next year. The analysis suggests that while the price growth of standard DRAM will moderate, rising HBM shipments and prices will drive up overall DRAM prices.

Researcher Kim explained, “While the price growth of general-purpose DRAM will moderate next year, HBM—with bit growth (B/G) of 57% and an ASP increase of 49%—will drive the overall rise in DRAM prices.”

He also noted that as the context length and processing speed of AI models increase, the importance of memory bandwidth will grow. He explained that as custom HBM—which integrates memory controller functions onto the base die—and wafer bonding technology become more widespread, memory manufacturers’ roles could expand into the areas of design and system performance.

Analyst Kim concluded, “If the means of increasing bandwidth shift toward base die manufacturing and wafer bonding, memory manufacturers’ influence could grow.”

SK hynix’s operating profit for the third and fourth quarters of this year is estimated at 73.2 trillion won and 83.9 trillion won, respectively. Operating profit for next year is projected to reach 386.2 trillion won, a 51.3% increase from this year. DRAM ASPs are expected to rise by 15.8% and 7.2% in the third and fourth quarters of this year, respectively, and by 23.9% annually next year.

The report also noted that the shift by the graphics processing unit (GPU) and application-specific integrated circuit (ASIC) sectors to HBM4, which increases the capacity per chip, is a positive development for SK hynix. In particular, it anticipates that customer diversification will gain momentum as the adoption of HBM expands into the proprietary AI accelerators of major tech companies such as Meta, Microsoft, and OpenAI.

Analyst Kim stated, “HBM per chip in big tech ASICs has converged to the 216–288 GB range, and following the 12-layer HBM3E, HBM4 has begun to be adopted, with the next generation already having bandwidth expansion on its roadmap.” He added, “The trend toward expanded adoption by the ASIC sector is advantageous for SK hynix, the leader in HBM market share, in terms of customer diversification.”

He added, “SK hynix’s current stock price is at an absolutely low level, trading at 3.1 times next year’s earnings per share (EPS) and 1.6 times book value per share (BPS).”