[Edaily Reporter KIM JUNG YOU ] Concerns are mounting that the economic fallout could worsen as international oil prices surpass $100 per barrel. In particular, as oil prices rise, they are expected to drive up the prices of major petroleum products such as gasoline and diesel, thereby increasing inflationary pressures worldwide.

Rukman Otonu, head of the market research team at global brokerage firm FXTM, pointed out in an interview with AP on the 9th (local time), “While Brent crude breaking the $100 mark is a key psychological milestone for the market, the bigger issue is the impact this will have on inflation.”

Given that U.S. President Donald Trump has also mentioned that oil prices will not stabilize until after the midterm elections this November, the prevailing view is that the likelihood of short-term stabilization is low.

Oil prices have shown extreme volatility over the past six months. At the onset of the U.S.-Iran conflict, Brent crude rose to around $120 per barrel, and from late April through early May, it consistently traded in the $100 range. Although prices briefly fell to the $70 range this summer amid hopes for a peace deal between the U.S. and Iran, they have recently resumed an upward trend as tensions between the two countries have flared up again.

The resulting impact is a rise in petroleum product prices, which directly affects ordinary households. Not only has the rise in gasoline prices increased the burden on drivers, but the sharp surge in diesel prices—used in trucks, trains, and ships—is driving up overall logistics costs.

Analysts note that Asian and African countries, which are highly dependent on crude oil imports from the Middle East, have been particularly hard hit. According to the energy research firm Global Petrol Prices, since late February, diesel prices in Nigeria have surged by more than 90%, while gasoline prices have jumped by about 58%. In Indonesia, gasoline prices rose by 38% and diesel prices by 87%. Lebanon also saw diesel prices rise by 80% and gasoline prices by 46%.

The national average price of gasoline in the United States also reached $4.22 per gallon as of the 9th, an increase of about 42% compared to the pre-war level ($2.98). The average price of diesel in the U.S. hit an all-time high of $5.94 per gallon, up about 58% from before the war.

According to the Singapore spot market (MOPS), where international petroleum products are primarily traded, the international price of 92-octane gasoline was just $74.86 per barrel and the price of diesel was $88.20 as of February 9, but as of the 9th of this month, gasoline rose to $132.32 and diesel to $171.18. This means gasoline prices have surged by about 76% and diesel prices by about 94% in roughly seven months.

In particular, since diesel prices are directly linked to transportation and production costs, they have a profound impact on overall inflation. Some companies have already begun passing on these increases to online order shipping fees and postal rates. Given that fresh foods and agricultural products require frequent restocking and that diesel is used to power farm machinery, upward pressure on grocery prices is expected to intensify.

As airlines scale back operations and raise fares due to soaring jet fuel prices, prices for petrochemical derivatives—such as clothing and school supplies—as well as natural gas, which is essential for fertilizer production, are rising in a chain reaction.

The AP noted, “It takes time for an energy shock to spread throughout the entire supply chain, so it is highly likely that even the repercussions of previous oil price hikes have not yet been fully reflected in the market,” adding, “On top of this, Brent crude oil breaking through the $100 mark again is adding further upward pressure on prices.”

Otu Nuga, Head of FXTM, said in an interview with the AP, “We must note that, unlike last July when the oil price hike was a one-off event, this rise is occurring amid escalating tensions,” adding, “The fact that prices have settled above the $100 mark shows this is not a temporary spike, and we should be prepared for prices to reach the $110-per-barrel level.”