[Edaily Reporter Kim Sung-kon ] 10:00 a.m. on the 18th at the Blue House State Guest House. The eyes of the entire nation are fixed on the Blue House. President Lee Jae-myung will hold a 90-minute press conference attended by approximately 150 domestic and international journalists. The topics will cover two areas: politics and diplomacy, and policy and the economy. Given the serious decline in President Lee’s approval ratings, all eyes are on whether this press conference will serve as a turning point. Both the ruling and opposition parties are also closely monitoring President Lee’s press conference today.

As expected, the main topics of interest are the constitutional amendment for a second term and the controversy over the dismissal of criminal charges. If President Lee does not address these issues in his opening remarks, they will be the top priority for reporters’ questions. Opinions are divided. He may make explicit statements saying, “I will not seek a second term” and “I will stand trial” at the same time, or he may not mention them at all. Some speculate that while he may state that a second term is not possible, his remarks regarding the dismissal of charges will be somewhat ambiguous.

◇A “Constitutional Amendment for Re-election” Impossible Under Article 128 of the Constitution; National Assembly Speaker Cho Jung-sik’s Slip of the Tongue Sparked the Controversy

Logically speaking, a constitutional amendment for a second consecutive term is an unreasonable political offensive by the opposition. The core of the allegation is that President Lee is attempting to secure long-term rule through a constitutional amendment, but this is impossible based solely on the text of the Constitution. Article 128, Paragraph 2 clearly stipulates that “A constitutional amendment to extend the term of office of the President or to allow for a second consecutive term shall not apply to the President in office at the time the amendment is proposed.” In other words, even if a constitutional amendment establishing a four-year two-term or consecutive-term system were to pass under the Lee Jae-myung administration, it would absolutely not apply to President Lee. Furthermore, given that the quorum for a constitutional amendment requires at least two-thirds of the total number of seats, the People Power Party—which is firmly opposed to the amendment—holds 109 seats, exceeding the 100-seat threshold needed to block it. No matter how hard the Democratic Party pushes for the amendment, it is structurally impossible if the People Power Party opposes it.

The controversy over a structurally impossible constitutional amendment to allow a second consecutive term intensified due to a slip of the tongue by National Assembly Speaker Cho Jung-sik. Speaker Cho, who is known to be pro-Lee Jae-myung, remarked during a press conference marking his first anniversary in office last July, regarding the restructuring of the power system, that “issues such as a constitutional amendment to allow the incumbent president to serve a second consecutive term are ultimately a matter of public opinion and the choice of the people, who are the sovereign.” This led to interpretations that key figures within the ruling camp were in fact weighing the possibility of such an amendment. Furthermore, President Lee’s discourse on a “structural majority” and his golf outings with senior opposition figures also fueled suspicions of a constitutional amendment push. Even excluding seats held by parties within the broader ruling bloc—such as the Jo Kuk Innovation Party, the Progressive Party, the Basic Income Party, and the Social Democratic Party—the Democratic Party holds 161 seats, constituting an absolute majority. Unless a constitutional amendment is being pursued, the argument for a “structural majority” is, in fact, unnecessary.

Party leader Jang Dong-hyuk has been pressing President Lee day after day, saying, “Just say those five words: ‘There will be no second term.’” Weary of the opposition’s attacks and falling approval ratings, President Lee remarked during a meeting with Korean expatriates on the 9th while on a state visit to France, “In any case, my term of office is clearly limited by the Constitution.” However, as even some within the ruling party have pointed out the need for a clearer stance on constitutional amendments for re-election, all eyes are on what remarks President Lee will make. Democratic Party lawmaker Yoon Geon-young advised, “We must sweep away all traces without leaving any residue. We need to wrap this up so cleanly that people say, ‘That was going too far.’”

◇President Lee’s Trial Suspended Under Article 84 of the Constitution… Dismissal of Indictment and Kim Seung-won’s Appointment Serve as Litmus Tests

“Withdrawal of indictment” is an unfamiliar and obscure term. Put very simply, it means a prosecutor who has referred a criminal to trial requests that the trial be halted, stating, “It appears I made a mistake, so let’s stop the trial now.” If the prosecution’s withdrawal of charges is lawful, the court must issue a decision to dismiss the indictment. This is in accordance with Article 328, Paragraph 1, Item 1 of the Criminal Procedure Act, which states, “When an indictment is withdrawn, the court shall dismiss the indictment by a ruling.” Once the court issues a decision to dismiss the indictment, the trial proceedings in question are effectively concluded.

Before taking office, President Lee was facing five separate trials. These include: △violation of the Public Official Election Act; △instigation of perjury; △allegations related to Daejang-dong, Baekhyeon-dong, and Seongnam FC; △Ssangbangwool’s remittances to North Korea; and △breach of trust involving Gyeonggi Province’s corporate credit cards. However, in accordance with Article 84 of the Constitution, which states that “the President shall not be subject to criminal prosecution while in office, except in cases of insurrection or treason,” the trial proceedings are currently suspended. Consequently, once President Lee completes his five-year term and leaves office, the trials will resume. If the prosecution withdraws the indictments or the court dismisses the charges in President Lee’s cases, he will effectively eliminate his “judicial risk” even after leaving office.

Since last February, the People Power Party has criticized the push to have the charges dropped as an attempt to eliminate President Lee’s judicial risk. This is because the Democratic Party launched a “Parliamentary Group to Push for the Dismissal of Charges in the Lee Jae-myung Case and a Parliamentary Inquiry” at that time, which attracted the participation of as many as 105 lawmakers. In particular, the appointment of Democratic Party lawmaker Kim Seung-won—who served as co-chair of the group—as Minister of Justice was the decisive blow. There is skepticism that if the appointment is pushed through despite public opposition, Minister Kim Seung-won will move to have the charges against President Lee dropped once he takes office.

During his first-anniversary press conference last June, President Lee, when asked about the special counsel investigation into the alleged fabricated indictment and the dismissal of charges, stated, “At the very least, we must uncover the truth [regarding whether the indictment was fabricated],” adding, “We can review the results and make a judgment based on the law and common sense. If it was wrong, we should correct it; if it wasn’t, we should leave it as is.” All eyes are on today’s press conference to see if the President will offer a more detailed position than before. Regarding this, Rep. Park Ji-won stated, “Since the public harbors many suspicions, it would be good for the President to address them and move forward. I hope he will speak clearly on the matter.”