[Edaily Reporter kyoungeun kim ] NAVER(035420)Forecasts suggest that NAVER will report third-quarter earnings that fall short of market expectations due to the Chuseok holiday and a concentration of costs in the second half of the year. However, analysts note that since a significant portion of the cost increase is investment-related and key indicators remain solid, customer contracts for AI Factory and approval of the merger with Namuga Co.,Ltd are expected to trigger a stock price rebound starting in the fourth quarter.

In a report released on the 7th, Jeong Ui-hoon, an analyst at EUGENE INVESTMENT & SECURITIES, estimated NAVER’s third-quarter revenue at 3.4857 trillion won—an 11.1% increase year-over-year—and operating profit at 489.3 billion won, a 14.3% decrease. Operating profit fell short of the consensus estimate (521 billion won). The firm maintained its “Buy” rating and target price of 320,000 won. The previous day’s closing price was 191,100 won.

Analyst Jeong explained, “This is because the Chuseok holiday fell in September, reducing the number of business days for advertising and commerce; the base effect from last year’s increase in commerce commission rates has faded; and cost expenditures are concentrated in the second half of the year.”

By segment, advertising revenue is expected to increase by 6.3% to 1.4866 trillion won. While strong performance in AI AdBoost and commerce advertising is expected to continue, the growth rate is projected to slow due to the impact of the holiday. Service revenue is projected to rise 12.0% to 468.9 billion won, with robust growth in transaction volume driven by N Delivery and membership services. Financial platform revenue is estimated at 493.6 billion won, up 15.5% primarily due to external payment volumes, while global initiatives are projected to reach 1.0366 trillion won, a 15.9% increase, driven by growth in peer-to-peer (C2C) transactions and expanded Sovereign AI contracts.

Conversely, operating expenses are projected to rise 16.7% to 2.9965 trillion won. This reflects increased marketing expenses due to device rollouts and shopping promotions, as well as higher depreciation costs resulting from investments in World Cup and Asian Games broadcasting rights and graphics processing units (GPUs). Consequently, this year’s operating profit estimate was lowered by 4.6% from the previous 2.167 trillion won to 2.068 trillion won.

The outlook for the stock price was seen as hinging on the materialization of upcoming events. With NVIDIA’s $1 billion capital increase (4.5% stake) scheduled for the 30th, AI Factory is expected to sequentially announce its definitive agreement with Brookfield and contracts with clients. Analyst Jeong stated, “While the company is moving toward securing contracts with multiple clients rather than a single contract with a major anchor tenant as originally expected, this approach is actually more advantageous for securing initial utilization rates and profitability,” adding, “The target of achieving 55 MW of operational capacity in the first half of 2027 remains valid.”

The merger between Naver Financial and Dunamu is expected to complete its review by the Fair Trade Commission within the year. Although the timeline for monetization is being delayed due to legislative delays regarding digital assets, such as won-pegged stablecoins, the assessment is that the direction of business opportunities remains valid.

Analyst Jeong emphasized, “While it is difficult to expect earnings momentum in the third quarter, a significant portion of the cost increase stems from investments in offline data and AI infrastructure, and key metrics such as transaction volume and payment volume remain robust.” He added, “Events becoming visible starting in the fourth quarter—such as AI Factory client contracts and approval of the Namuga Co.,Ltd. merger—will serve as triggers for a stock price rebound.”