[Edaily Reporter kyoungeun kim ] SamsungElectronics(005930)Despite the company’s record earnings, it was unable to overcome selling pressure from foreign investors. Analysts suggest that while the upward trend in the Korean stock market is likely to continue, the timing and strength of the rally will depend on a shift in foreign investor sentiment.
Kim Doo-eon, an analyst at Hana Securities, stated in a report on the 13th, “We maintain our outlook for an upward trend in the Korean stock market,” but added, “The timing and intensity of the rally, as well as the pace of further position expansion, will depend on a shift in foreign investor sentiment.” He emphasized, “The key question is whether the easing of inflation and interest rate pressures resulting from the implementation of the Russia-Ukraine energy truce, along with the recovery in manufacturing and the stabilization of the won, will lead to sustained net buying in the spot market.”
On the 8th, SamsungElectronics announced preliminary third-quarter revenue of 195 trillion won and operating profit of 107.4 trillion won. Operating profit rose 782.5% year-over-year and 20.01% quarter-over-quarter. However, SamsungElectronics’ stock price fell 2.42% that day, and the KOSPI closed at 6,625.93, down 2.62%. The foreign ownership ratio of SamsungElectronics common stock stood at 46.38%, the lowest level since January 2008. Analyst Kim stated, “For improved earnings to lead to a rise in the index, there needs to be buying momentum to support it,” adding, “In the current situation, an easing of foreign selling pressure is the starting point.”

He identified retail funds entering the market at peak levels as a potential supply-demand burden during the rebound. Based on September data, retail investors’ cumulative net purchases in the KOSPI 7,000–9,000 range totaled approximately 83.6 trillion won. Analyst Kim noted, “If part of this capital shifts to selling as investors recoup their initial investments, the index’s upward momentum could weaken,” adding, “New buying demand must flow in to absorb the pressure in this high-price range.”
He also noted that market expectations tend to rise following record-breaking earnings. Analyst Kim explained, “Stock prices are a function of their slope,” adding, “After earnings announcements, we must assess the pace of upward revisions to next year’s earnings estimates, the sustainability of memory prices and orders, and cash generation capacity following investment expansion.”
Hana Securities applied time-lag correlation analysis to three bull markets—China’s high-growth period (February 2003–October 2007), the post-financial crisis recovery period (September 2008–July 2011), and the COVID-19 liquidity phase (February 2020–September 2021)—to identify clues regarding the return of foreign investors. The results showed that the U.S. Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Index led foreign net buying by one month, the U.S. core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation rate by five months, and the yield spread between South Korean and U.S. 10-year government bonds by two months.
Recent indicators are mixed. The September ISM Manufacturing Index fell to 54.5 from 54.6 the previous month, but the New Orders Index rose from 53.7 to 55.3. The year-over-year core PCE inflation rate in August was 3.0%.
Researcher Kim predicted, “If the attacks actually cease due to an energy ceasefire, disruptions to refinery operations and diesel supply concerns could subside, potentially easing upward pressure on energy prices.” He added, “This could lower expected inflation and the burden of monetary tightening, which would have a positive effect on foreign investor sentiment.” However, the risk of escalation in the Middle East—such as the attack on Riyadh Airport over the weekend—remains a burden on inflation and discount rates.
He cited the sustainability of actual net spot purchases as the criterion for increasing exposure. Researcher Kim noted “If the ratio—calculated by dividing foreign investors’ net spot purchases over the last 20 trading days by the KOSPI’s market capitalization at the end of the previous month—turns positive, and if buying spreads from large-cap semiconductor stocks to other sectors, confidence in a recovery of supply and demand will increase,” he said. “Since the AI era presents an opportunity for Korea, core holdings in memory and power infrastructure should be maintained, but any increase in weighting in October should be linked to foreign investor sentiment.”