[Edaily Reporter kyoungeun kim ] Although SamsungElectronics(005930)has ushered in an era of quarterly operating profit exceeding 100 trillion won, its stock price has shown no reaction. Against this backdrop, analysts suggest that the key point to watch in the domestic stock market this week is whether foreign investors will resume buying after the company’s share buyback program concludes.

Cho Jun-ki, an analyst at SKSecurities, noted in a report on the 12th, “Despite SamsungElectronics’ better-than-expected preliminary earnings and the overwhelming figure of quarterly operating profit exceeding 100 trillion won, the market reaction has been lackluster.”

While the domestic stock market was closed, reports emerged that OpenAI’s annualized revenue was around $50 billion—not the previously reported $70 billion—leading to sharp declines, particularly in artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure stocks. Although subsequent reports indicated annualized revenue of over $70 billion, the market was unable to fully recover from the losses.

Analyst Cho noted, “After the close of regular trading on the domestic stock market, the prices of perpetual futures in the cryptocurrency market showed declines of around -1.5% and -3% for SamsungElectronics and SK hynix(000660), respectively,” adding, “We need to keep the unfavorable price trends at the start of the week in mind.”

In terms of supply and demand, attention focused on the completion of share buybacks. Since the announcement of the share buyback policies, cumulative net purchases by other corporations have totaled 14.7 trillion won for SamsungElectronics (planned amount: 15 trillion won) and 34.7 trillion won for SK hynix (planned amount: 40 trillion won). Analyst Cho explained, “Considering the average daily net buying pace, it is highly likely that SK hynix’s share buyback will be completed by the end of this week,” adding, “Since a significant portion of net buying by other institutions has been attributed to net selling by foreign investors, we need to monitor whether foreign investor sentiment shifts back to net buying after the buyback concludes.”

The foreign ownership ratio has dropped significantly. The foreign ownership ratios for SamsungElectronics and SK hynix stand at 46.35% and 49.52%, respectively—their lowest levels in 52 weeks. This is about 6 percentage points lower than their 52-week highs (52.62% and 55.61%, respectively). Analyst Cho noted, “Foreign investors have sold heavily recently, leaving their positions largely empty.”

As for economic indicators, he highlighted the U.S. September Consumer Price Index (CPI), which will be released on the 14th. According to the CME FedWatch, the probability of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) keeping interest rates unchanged in October stands at 82%, but this is not yet certain. Researcher Cho stated, “There is a high likelihood that the consensus will shift sharply again after the inflation data is released,” adding, “Current market expectations are for headline and core inflation to rise by approximately 0.6% and 0.2%, respectively, month-over-month.” Since the Fed enters its blackout period starting on the 17th, he noted that comments from Fed officials before then are also likely to have a significant impact.

Earnings season is also in full swing. This week, U.S. financial stocks such as JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup, as well as ASML (on the 14th) and TSMC (on the 15th), will report their earnings. Analyst Cho analyzed, “Rather than the earnings of semiconductor companies, which are somewhat predictable, the market may be more interested in using financial stock earnings to confirm whether both banks and borrowers are maintaining sound conditions despite high interest rates.”

Regarding stock selection, he emphasized the importance of “adjusting expectations.” Analyst Cho noted, “While the market reaction to SamsungElectronics’ preliminary earnings was unfavorable, LG Energy Solution(373220)saw its stock price surge as its operating profit exceeded the consensus estimate by more than double,” adding, “In the short term, buying interest is likely to concentrate on stocks that demonstrate significant improvement relative to expectations or have upwardly revised outlooks, rather than those with the largest absolute numbers.”