[Edaily Reporter Shin Ha-yeon ] On the 28th, Heungkuk Securities projected that HYBE(352820)would post third-quarter earnings in line with market expectations, driven by the BTS tour and increased sales of merchandise (MD). The firm also gave a positive assessment of the growth momentum of new artists such as KATSEYE and Cortis. However, reflecting the cooling investment sentiment in the entertainment sector and concerns about profit growth, it lowered its target price from 330,000 won to 260,000 won. It maintained its “Buy” investment rating.

In a report released today, Song Ji-won, an analyst at Heungkuk Securities, projected that HYBE’s third-quarter consolidated revenue would reach 1.4711 trillion won, a 102.3% increase year-over-year. Operating profit is expected to turn to a surplus at 163.9 billion won, in line with the market consensus of 164.5 billion won.

The firm projected that this earnings growth would be driven by BTS’s global tour. The third quarter will reflect BTS’s 24 concerts across 11 cities in North America and Europe. World tours by major artists such as ENHYPEN, &TEAM, LE SSERAFIM, and ILLIT are also expected to contribute to revenue growth.

Analyst Song explained, “We expect revenue growth to be somewhat limited by a decline in the average ticket price (ATP) due to an increased proportion of European concerts—where the dynamic pricing effect is more limited compared to North America—and a weaker exchange rate,” but added, “The concert division is projected to grow quarter-over-quarter due to an increase in the number of tours for major IPs.”

The merchandising and licensing segment is also expected to grow, driven by improved supply and demand for BTS tour-related merchandise and strong sales of character and collaboration products from newer artists. While the music album segment faces a base effect due to record-high sales in the previous quarter, sales performance from ENHYPEN, &TEAM, and Cortis is expected to partially offset this.

Particular attention was paid to the growth momentum of rookie artists. Analyst Song assessed, “Robust performance is expected for two consecutive quarters due to the BTS tour, and among newer artists, KATSEYE and Cortis are also showing rapid growth and making significant contributions in digital music and physical album sales, respectively.”

Through “THE WILDWORLD TOUR,” which began last September, KATSEYE is conducting a 31-show arena tour across 27 cities in 10 countries in North America and Europe. The actual number of attendees is expected to increase more than sixfold compared to their previous tour.

Cortice is also expanding its global fanbase through its first world tour. Cumulative album sales from January to September this year, including previously released albums, totaled approximately 5.4 million copies, with the possibility of reaching 6 million copies by the end of the year.

The debut of new artists was also cited as a growth driver. In August, the girl group Tuid, from the new label ABD, made its debut, and two groups—a North American girl group and a boy group—originally scheduled for the second half of this year are now expected to debut next year.

However, HEUNGKUK METALTECH CO.,LTD. lowered the price-to-earnings ratio (PER) used to calculate the target stock price from 34x to 28x. This move reflects concerns over a decline in sector-wide investor sentiment and a slowdown in earnings leverage. Applying a target PER of 28x to the projected 2027 earnings per share (EPS) of 9,225 won, the firm calculated a target stock price of 260,000 won.

Analyst Song assessed that medium- to long-term growth drivers—such as earnings improvements driven by the BTS tour and the rapid growth of new artists—remain valid.