[Edaily Reporter KIM YOON JI ] Japanese memory semiconductor company Kioxia Holdings will announce its earnings at 6:45 p.m. on the 30th. Amid growing skepticism regarding investments in artificial intelligence (AI), all eyes are on whether Kioxia can regain investor confidence based on strong earnings.
According to Bloomberg, Kioxia’s stock price has fallen by about 60% from its peak in June. Over the same period, it has posted the worst performance among major global memory and storage-related stocks tracked by CITIC CLSA. This is due to concerns spreading across the global semiconductor sector regarding whether Big Tech companies will be able to continue raising the massive funds needed to build AI infrastructure.

The earnings outlook is bright. According to Investing.com, Kioxia’s earnings per share (EPS) forecast for the second quarter of fiscal year 2026 (July–September) is 847.73 yen, representing an increase of approximately 3,275% compared to the same period last year (25.12 yen). The problem is that, given the market’s already high expectations, it will be difficult to elicit a positive response from investors even if the company reports strong results.
Charles Henri Moncho, Chief Investment Officer (CIO) at BankSies, said, “Since the market is already anticipating strong quarterly results, even another round of good earnings may not do much to shift investor sentiment.” He noted that he is closely watching whether semiconductor prices continue to rise and whether progress is being made on long-term supply contracts with hyperscalers (companies operating large-scale data centers).
NAND flash prices continue to rise due to supply shortages driven by AI demand. This upward price trend has even spread to older-generation semiconductors used in PCs and smartphones.
Mongcho, the CIO, emphasized that while the market is already aware of this situation, sales performance in the data center and enterprise solid-state drive (SSD) segments is even more critical.
“The enterprise SSD segment tends to have high profit margins and long-term customer relationships,” he said. “If Kioxia falls behind in this area, it will become even more reliant on the consumer product market, where demand is weak and pricing power is limited.”
Intensifying competition is another concern. Kioxia’s NAND flash market share lags behind that of SamsungElectronics(005930)and SK hynix(000660). Korean semiconductor companies are in a favorable position to secure data center customers because they can bundle high-bandwidth memory (HBM) with storage semiconductors. Kioxia does not have any HBM products in its portfolio.
The improving technological capabilities of Chinese competitors are also a cause for concern. According to market research firm Counterpoint Research, China’s Yangtze Memory Technology (YMTC) surpassed Kioxia and U.S.-based Micron Technology in NAND flash shipments in the second quarter of 2026 to rank third globally.
Kioxia’s valuation has fallen significantly due to the sharp drop in its stock price. According to Bloomberg, Kioxia’s 12-month forward price-to-earnings ratio (P/E ratio) stood at 3.5x, approaching an all-time low. This is lower than the average of 5.2x for major memory and storage companies, as calculated by CITIC CLSA.
Kioxia plans to begin paying dividends in the next fiscal year or earlier. Hiroki Takei, a strategist at Resona Holdings, said, “Once a company introduces or increases dividends, it is difficult to reduce them easily,” adding, “Introducing dividends will send a message to the market that management itself expects strong performance to continue.”
Shares of SanDisk, Kioxia’s competitor and joint venture partner, fell in after-hours trading despite the company announcing earnings and outlook that exceeded market expectations the previous day. Bloomberg noted that this reflects the depth of investors’ skepticism regarding how long the upswing in the memory semiconductor market and the AI boom will last.
Amid these doubts, observers point out that it is crucial for Kioxia to secure long-term supply contracts with customers on favorable terms. Ashwin Binwani, founder of private investment firm Alpha Binwani Capital, said, “We want to know how much committed demand there is, how diversified the customer base is, and whether the company can maintain profitability even if the price uptrend slows.”
He emphasized, “To buy more Kioxia stock, we need evidence that its earnings generation is becoming more sustainable—beyond simply reporting results that exceed market expectations.”