[New York = E-Daily Correspondent Seong Joowon ] Forecasts indicate that the Democratic Party will secure 239 seats in the House of Representatives and 53 seats in the Senate in the U.S. midterm elections, regaining control of both chambers. Democratic victories are also predicted in Republican strongholds such as Texas and Kansas. If these forecasts materialize, President Donald Trump will face checks and balances from a Democratic-led Congress on legislation, the budget, and personnel appointments for the remaining two years of his term.

“Sabato’s Crystal Ball,” an election analysis outlet affiliated with the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, predicted in its final forecast on the 2nd (local time) that the Democrats would win 239 seats in the House of Representatives, while the Republicans would secure 196. This gives the Democrats a 21-seat lead over the 218-seat majority threshold, exceeding even the 235 seats they secured in the 2018 midterm elections held during Trump’s first term.
Of the 17 House districts that remained too close to call until the very end, 14 were classified as “Democrats slightly favored” and 3 as “Republicans slightly favored.” From the 1st of last month until the final adjustment, there were 66 forecast revisions in favor of the Democrats, significantly outnumbering the 2 revisions in favor of the Republicans.
In the Senate, the Democrats are expected to retain all their existing seats and win six Republican seats. This would reverse the current balance of 53 Republican seats to 47 Democratic seats. The states expected to be recaptured are North Carolina, Alaska, Maine, Ohio, Kansas, and Texas. In particular, the analysis noted that in Kansas and Texas, the vulnerability of Republican candidates and the competitiveness of Democratic candidates aligned with the nationwide “anti-Trump” sentiment.
The forecast also projected that the Democrats would net four additional governorships, bringing their total to 28, while the Republicans would hold 22. Under this scenario, the Democrats would win five states—including Georgia and Nevada, which currently have Republican governors—but would lose Kansas to the Republicans. Crystal Ball compared Trump’s situation—facing the risk of losing control of Congress amid low approval ratings and unpopular wars—to that of President George W. Bush in 2006. However, it explained that the race remains so close that, just six days earlier, it had projected the Democrats would hold 51 to 52 Senate seats. It emphasized that the outlook for the Senate majority could change if polls underestimated Republican support or if Republican voters turn out in large numbers on Election Day.