[Edaily Reporter Shin Ha-yeon ] On the 6th, NH INVESTMENT & SECURITIES projected that Netmarble Corporation(251270)will continue to see weak earnings in the second half of this year due to delays in the release of new titles, but is expected to show signs of recovery next year with the launch of 13 new games. The analysis also anticipates improved profitability resulting from the establishment of an AI-based work environment and a reduction in Google Play Store fees. The firm maintained its “Buy” rating but lowered the target price from 60,000 won to 50,000 won.

Ahn Jae-min, an analyst at NH INVESTMENT & SECURITIES, stated in a report released today, “Although earnings in the second half of this year are weak due to delays in the new game lineup originally scheduled for release in the second half of 2026, the company is expected to rebound with the planned release of 13 games in 2027.”

Netmarble Corporation is preparing to launch a total of 13 new titles next year. Three titles—‘Shangri-La Frontier: The Seven Strongest Species,’ ‘I Alone Level Up: KARMA,’ and ‘WB All-Star Raising’—which were originally planned for release this year, have had their launch dates pushed back to the first quarter of next year. The remaining 10 titles are also scheduled to be released sequentially throughout next year.

The lineup of new titles includes “Guardian Tales: Dig Dot,” “Pearl in Blue,” “Evilbane,” “Wilderings,” “Babel Protocol,” and “Dark Priest.” The company’s strategy is to increase the potential for commercial success by diversifying genres, ranging from collectible role-playing games (RPGs) to action, strategy, and casual games.

In particular, the company has focused on establishing an AI-based work environment to efficiently launch a large number of new titles. Netmarble Corporation explained that it has established a system that utilizes AI not only in development but also throughout the entire process of game launch and operation.

Analyst Ahn commented, “2027 is expected to be the year we see the results of this strategy,” adding, “If the success rate increases alongside the release of a large number of titles, it will not only lead to earnings growth and a rise in the stock price but also ensure that the company’s AI-driven strategy has a positive impact on the gaming industry.”

However, current earnings are lackluster. Netmarble Corporation’s third-quarter consolidated revenue stood at 634.7 billion won, down 8.8% year-over-year and 15.3% quarter-over-quarter. Operating profit was 50.4 billion won, a decrease of 44.5% year-over-year and 37.1% quarter-over-quarter. This figure also fell significantly short of the market consensus of 82.4 billion won.

Although revenue from “SOL: enchant,” released last June, was fully reflected in the third-quarter results, it was insufficient to fill the revenue gap caused by delays in new game launches. Analysts attribute the deterioration in profitability to this, compounded by a decline in revenue from existing games.

Analyst Ahn explained, “Although revenue from ‘SOL: enchant,’ which was released in June and performed well, was fully reflected over a 90-day period, the lack of new game releases in the second half due to delays, combined with the declining revenue from existing games, led to weak operating profit.”

Next year, a reduction in Google Play Store fees is also expected to contribute to improved profitability. This is because, under Google’s new fee policy taking effect on December 31, the commission rate per game may vary from the current 30% to a range of 20–30%.

Netmarble Corporation expects its commission burden to decrease next year due to an increase in the proportion of in-house payments and changes to Google’s commission policy. While the commission rate in the third quarter of this year rose to 33% due to factors such as revenue-sharing costs paid to external developers, the company explains that there is room to improve its cost structure since most of next year’s new titles will be in-house developments.

Analyst Ahn stated, “With Google Play Store’s commission rate reduction scheduled to take effect on December 31, 2026, a positive impact on profitability is also expected.”

NH INVESTMENT & SECURITIES revised downward its earnings forecasts for this year and next year to reflect delays in the release of new titles and a decline in revenue from existing games. The firm projected operating profit for this year at 235.5 billion won—a 28.1% decrease from the previous estimate—and for next year at 249.9 billion won, a 31.9% decrease. Operating profit for next year is expected to increase by 6.1% compared to this year.

The target price of 50,000 won was calculated by combining the value derived from applying a target price-to-earnings ratio (PER) of 13x to the gaming business with the value of the company’s equity holdings in COWAY, HYBE, and NCSoft.

Analyst Ahn stated, “The performance of the 13-title lineup in 2027 will be crucial,” predicting that whether the release of numerous new titles and AI-driven operational efficiencies translate into actual commercial success will be key to future earnings and a recovery in the stock price.