[Edaily Reporter Kim Hyung-il ] NH INVESTMENT & SECURITIES forecast that the value of HanmiPharm(128940)’s novel obesity treatment (LA-UCN2) will increase following a large-scale technology transfer agreement for a new obesity drug with Genentech, a subsidiary of the Roche Group. The firm maintained its “Buy (BUY)” investment rating and raised its target price from 540,000 won to 760,000 won.

On the 25th, Han Seung-yeon, an analyst at NH INVESTMENT & SECURITIES, stated, “Following yesterday’s massive obesity technology transfer deal with Roche, we have adjusted the value of the LA-UCN2 new drug from 2 trillion won to 4.1 trillion won,” adding, “We estimate the value of LA-UCN2 attributable to HanmiPharm at 2.3 trillion won.”

The contract with Genentech is valued at up to $2.305 billion (3.1892 trillion won), and HanmiPharm will receive an upfront payment of $190 million (262.9 billion won). Genentech secures exclusive rights to the development, manufacturing, and commercialization of the new obesity drug HM17321 worldwide, excluding South Korea. HanmiPharm plans to complete the ongoing Phase 1 clinical trial, after which Genentech will take over development starting with Phase 2.

LA-UCN2 is a long-acting UCN2 analog currently under development by HanmiPharm; it is a non-incretin-class obesity drug candidate designed to simultaneously promote weight loss and muscle preservation. It is currently in Phase 1 clinical trials, and there is potential for combination use with existing glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) class therapies such as Wegovy and Mounjaro.

One analyst expects LA-UCN2 to become the world’s leading “muscle-preserving” obesity drug candidate and forecasts pre-risk-adjusted sales of $7.9 billion by 2046. This sales estimate reflects $3 billion in sales from combination therapy with Roche’s obesity treatment and $4.9 billion in sales from combination therapy with other obesity treatments.

This year, HanmiPharm has concluded two mega technology transfer deals: a $1.3 billion (1.8 trillion won) deal with Lilly earlier this year, followed by this major agreement with Genentech. An analyst identified key upcoming events as the Ministry of Food and Drug Safety (MFDS) approval of the obesity treatment in the fourth quarter, Merck’s decision in the first half of 2027 on whether to proceed to Phase 3 clinical trials for its MASH treatment, and additional technology transfers.

The global obesity treatment market is assessed to be led by Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk, with Roche, Pfizer, and AstraZeneca following behind. While Roche is developing CT388 and Petrelintide, analysts note that, given the gap between it and top-tier companies, the firm is attempting to strengthen its competitiveness by securing a new obesity drug candidate with a novel mechanism of action that preserves muscle mass.

One analyst commented, “With a total value of $2.3 billion, this is the second-largest global obesity deal ever for a single candidate,” adding, “The agreement demonstrates Roche’s commitment to expanding its obesity business.”