[Edaily Reporter Kim Hyung-il ] As SpaceX begins manufacturing key gas turbine components in-house to secure power for its artificial intelligence (AI) data centers, the global gas turbine supply shortage is coming into sharp focus. With existing gas turbine manufacturers already operating at full capacity and power demand expected to rise in both North America and South Korea, attention is turning to whether DOOSAN ENERBILITY(034020)will see increased opportunities to secure orders.

According to the securities industry on the 5th, the U.S. IT publication The Information reported late last month that SpaceX is building a foundry for gas turbine blades and vanes. On the same day, Tesla CEO Elon Musk effectively acknowledged the report via X, stating that natural gas is still necessary to support solar power generation and that SpaceX could accelerate the launch of its gas turbines by up to 18 months through in-house casting.

This move is interpreted as SpaceX leveraging its technical expertise in rocket engine manufacturing to directly secure power for xAI’s data centers. Rocket engines and gas turbines share core technologies such as combustion, gas expansion, and energy extraction.

However, it is unlikely that SpaceX will be able to secure a meaningful market share in the gas turbine sector in the short term. Gas turbine blades must withstand prolonged continuous operation, whereas rocket engines are primarily designed for short operating times measured in seconds to minutes. Furthermore, the casting process for high-performance gas turbine blades requires a single-crystal structure, demanding a higher level of technical expertise than that required for rocket engines.

It will also take time to reach actual mass production. SpaceX is expected to acquire the site sometime between March and June of this year, and the process—from factory completion and yield stabilization to original equipment manufacturing (OEM) for clients such as GE Vernova—is projected to take at least until 2030. Considering the tacit nature of gas turbine casting technology, the high barriers to entry, and challenges in securing specialized personnel, analysts predict that the decline in GE Vernova’s market share will be minimal.

Rather, the key point to note is that demand for gas turbines is growing rapidly, particularly for AI data centers. Existing gas turbine manufacturers, including GE Vernova, have already sold out their inventory through 2030, and it is expected that more than half of the 2031 supply will be sold by the end of this year.

DOOSAN ENERBILITY is considered a prime candidate to benefit from this expansion in gas turbine demand. DOOSAN ENERBILITY possesses gas turbine manufacturing capabilities and service infrastructure at its Changwon plant, and it also operates a service business that includes the reconditioning of high-temperature components, gas turbine rotor maintenance, and the manufacturing and maintenance of core components.

Actual orders are also coming in from the North American market. In March of this year, DOOSAN ENERBILITY signed a contract with a U.S. company to supply seven 380-MW-class gas turbines. Including this contract, the total number of units to be supplied to the U.S. has increased to 12, and these gas turbines are scheduled to be delivered sequentially—one unit per month—starting in May 2029.

Gas turbine orders are also growing rapidly. In the first half of this year, the company secured 12 additional orders—five domestically and seven overseas—bringing the cumulative order volume to 24 units. The cumulative order volume for the U.S. market stands at 12 units, with orders continuing to come in from the North American market, primarily for AI data centers.

Rising domestic electricity demand also presents additional opportunities. In the preliminary draft of the 12th Basic Plan for Electricity Supply and Demand announced in August of this year, the forecast for peak electricity demand in 2040 was revised upward by approximately 27 GW (19%) compared to the April projection. The securities industry estimates that 40–50 GW of new power generation capacity will be needed by 2035, when the increase in electricity demand is expected to be most concentrated.

The potential for expanding gas-fired power generation is also growing. While current plans call for a cumulative expansion of 19.5 GW in gas-fired power generation capacity by 2035, securities analysts project that an additional expansion of at least 50–100% will be necessary. Accordingly, analysts estimate that the size of the domestic market for gas turbine and steam turbine equipment accessible to DOOSAN ENERBILITY could expand from the current 9 trillion to 11 trillion won to 15 trillion to 20 trillion won.

Mid- to long-term order opportunities are also anticipated in the nuclear power sector. NH INVESTMENT & SECURITIES projected that 50 GW—more than half of the large-scale nuclear power plants and small modular reactors (SMRs) that DOOSAN ENERBILITY could secure by 2030—will be concentrated in North America. The firm also expects North America to account for a significant share of the gas turbine market and highlighted the potential for expanded order intake across both nuclear power and gas turbines.

Lee Min-jae, an analyst at NH INVESTMENT & SECURITIES, noted that the domestic and international nuclear power industries have entered a phase of strengthening momentum leading up to the U.S. midterm elections. Given that DOOSAN ENERBILITY has secured a dominant position in both the large-scale nuclear power and SMR markets, he projected that a full-scale expansion of order intake will be possible starting next year.