[Edaily Reporter Kim Hyung-il ] With the KOSPI slipping back to the 6,900 level just one day after reclaiming the 7,000 mark, volatility in the domestic stock market is expected to increase this week. This is due to international oil prices and U.S. Treasury yields remaining at high levels, as well as the upcoming regular meeting of the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) scheduled for the 17th. Analysts suggest that for the market to rise further, it must demonstrate resilience against external factors.

According to MP Doctor on the 13th, the KOSPI closed at 6,909.91 last week, up 222.70 points (3.33%) from the previous week. On the 9th, it closed at 7,051.64, breaking through the 7,000 mark, but on the 11th, it fell 1.76%, giving back some of its gains. While it recorded a sharp weekly gain, the sharp drop on the final trading day prevented it from firmly establishing itself above the 7,000 mark.

The focus of this week’s stock market is expected to center on whether the index can stabilize above the 7,000-point mark and whether the semiconductor-led rally can spread to other sectors. Since the index retreated immediately after crossing the 7,000-point mark, there is a possibility that a period of selling pressure could occur in the short term before any further gains.

From the 3rd to the 9th, foreign and institutional investors made net purchases of 3.271 trillion won and 6.8177 trillion won, respectively, while retail investors made net sales of 16.8363 trillion won. Foreign investors made net purchases of 1.7467 trillion won in SK hynix(000660)and 999.4 billion won in SamsungElectronics(005930), while institutions bought 2.7881 trillion won worth of SamsungElectronics and 613 billion won worth of SK hynix.

However, the mood shifted on the 11th. According to Shinhan Investment Securities, selling pressure emerged as market caution grew amid psychological thresholds—the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield reaching 5% and international oil prices hitting $100. The fact that the U.S. August Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 5.4% year-over-year, exceeding expectations, also heightened uncertainty regarding interest rates.

The simultaneous rise in oil prices and interest rates remains a major headwind for the stock market this week. If rising oil prices reignite inflation, uncertainty regarding the U.S. monetary policy path could increase; furthermore, if long-term interest rates continue to rise, the discount rate burden on stocks could also intensify.

At the FOMC meeting, attention is focused less on the benchmark interest rate decision itself and more on the dot plot, remarks by Fed officials, and the resulting direction of U.S. long-term interest rates. NH INVESTMENT & SECURITIES analyzed that the direction of the U.S. 30-year yield, as indicated by the dot plot and remarks from Fed officials, is more important than the benchmark interest rate decision itself. The firm also noted that the possibility of an upward revision to the dot plot should be kept in mind.

Hana Securities also analyzed that since the interest rate futures market already reflects the possibility of four benchmark rate hikes between September 2026 and December 2027, the perception may take hold that some of the burden from a September hike has already been priced in. The firm explained that if the Fed raises rates gradually, market interest rates could peak briefly after a benchmark rate hike and then decline.

Conversely, even if rates are held steady in September, it is difficult to rule out the possibility that high market interest rates will persist. Hana Securities noted that if investment-led growth continues, the scope for a decline in market interest rates may be limited; in this case, it analyzed that investors need to select sectors while assessing fundamentals from a short-term perspective.

Even in this interest rate environment, growth expectations centered on artificial intelligence (AI) and semiconductors are serving as a pillar of support for the domestic stock market. NH INVESTMENT & SECURITIES analyzed that the KOSPI recovered to the 7,000 level as expectations that the scope of AI applications could expand following OpenAI’s release of GPT-6 Astra led to increased demand for semiconductors. The firm believes that the existing framework—driven by the development of the AI industry and the benefits to the Korean market—remains solid.

It is also worth noting that the upward trend is spreading beyond the semiconductor sector. Last week, the construction and architecture sector rose 12.8% and the machinery sector rose 11.9%, outperforming the semiconductor sector’s 11.1% gain. Construction and architecture, trading and capital goods, and energy also ranked among the top sectors by combined net buying by foreign and institutional investors.

Accordingly, the key focus this week will be whether the semiconductor sector continues to lead the market while buying momentum spreads to sectors such as construction and machinery. If the semiconductor-led rally persists, it could signal that market confidence in the AI investment cycle remains strong; however, if demand concentrates once again on large-cap semiconductor stocks, the potential for further upward momentum driven by sector diversification could be limited.

If interest rates remain high, sector differentiation based on earnings and profitability is also expected. Hana Securities analyzed that, in a high-interest-rate environment, investors should focus on sectors where return on equity (ROE) improves through rising return on assets (ROA) and declining financial leverage. It identified semiconductors, capital goods, energy, utilities, and raw materials as sectors expected to see ROE improvement in the third quarter.

The strengthening of the won is another variable. Hana Securities analyzed that, given the 13% decline in the won-dollar exchange rate over the past three months, applying the patterns observed during past periods of won appreciation could put pressure on the operating profit margins of domestic companies. However, it assessed that the impact of a stronger won on operating profit margins would be relatively limited for sectors such as defense, shipbuilding, banking, power equipment, and utilities.

NH INVESTMENT & SECURITIES projected this week’s KOSPI range to be between 6,400 and 7,400. It cited falling oil prices and the “AI Astra effect” as upward drivers, while an escalation of the U.S.-Iran conflict and further increases in market interest rates were identified as downward drivers. While increased volatility due to external risks is inevitable in the short term, the firm believes that the fundamentals—driven by AI growth and the Korean stock market’s benefits—remain intact.

Lee Sang-jun, an analyst at NH INVESTMENT & SECURITIES, noted that the KOSPI’s recovery to the 7,000 level signifies that the existing framework—driven by AI industry growth and the Korean market’s benefits—remains solid despite interest rate volatility. However, he explained that since increased volatility due to external risks is inevitable in the short term, it is necessary to monitor whether the semiconductor-led rally continues and whether buying momentum spreads to other sectors.