[Edaily Reporter KIM JI-WAN ] EuBiologics Co., Ltd.(206650)is emerging as a direct beneficiary of growing global demand for cholera vaccines. Since 97.3% of the company’s revenue comes from cholera vaccines, changes in global demand have a significant impact on its financial performance.

According to EuBiologics Co., Ltd. on the 7th, cholera vaccine sales reached 145.2 billion won out of the company’s total revenue of 149.2 billion won. This represents a 62.2% increase from the 89.5 billion won recorded the previous year. Last year’s cholera vaccine supply also rose to 60.3 million doses, a 69.6% increase from the 37.19 million doses supplied in 2024. In effect, the cholera vaccine determines the direction of the company’s performance.

The demand environment is also favorable this year. With international emergency stockpiles of cholera vaccines falling below adequate levels, the company has entered the second half of the year, when orders typically peak. Furthermore, as vaccination programs—which had been suspended for about three years due to supply shortages—resume, the scope of vaccine demand is expanding from “emergency vaccinations in outbreak areas” to “maintaining stockpiles and vaccinations in high-risk areas.”

EuBiologics Co., Ltd. has increased the production yield of “UbiCol-S” by approximately 40% compared to its previous product and expanded its production facilities, achieving a production capacity of up to 90 million doses. In the past, order volumes exceeded production capacity, making it impossible to meet some of the demand; however, the situation has changed, as the company now has greater capacity to convert additional orders into actual supply and revenue.

3.88 million doses when 5 million are needed… “Even the reserve stock has been depleted”

According to data released by UNICEF on the 31st of last month, the international emergency stockpile of cholera vaccines stands at 3,879,490 doses. This is approximately 1.12 million doses short of the 5 million-dose standard maintained by the International Coordinating Group (ICG) for rapid response to cholera outbreaks.

To understand this figure, we must first examine the concept of “reserves.” The international community always maintains a certain amount of oral cholera vaccine (OCV) so it can be deployed immediately in the event of a sudden cholera outbreak in a specific country. This is why the stock is typically maintained at around 5 million doses. However, the company explains that, due to a recent surge in actual vaccination demand, even this emergency stockpile has been depleted.

A representative from EuBiologics Co., Ltd. stated, “The current shortage is due to the fact that existing demand was so high that even the reserve stock had to be used for actual supply,” adding, “It is difficult to accurately predict the remaining demand for this year, as orders come in real time depending on the outbreak situation in each region.”

However, just because the current stockpile stands at 3.88 million doses does not mean that the shortfall of 1.12 million doses will immediately lead to additional orders for EuBiologics Co., Ltd. Orders for cholera vaccines vary depending on the actual outbreak locations and scale, decisions regarding emergency vaccinations, and vaccination plans.

An official from EuBiologics Co., Ltd. noted, “We are supposed to maintain a stockpile of 5 million doses, but since that entire amount has been used, we can anticipate the possibility of further demand in the future.”

International organizations (WHO, Gavi, UNICEF) resumed preventive cholera vaccinations—which had been suspended since 2022—last February after the global supply of oral cholera vaccines increased from approximately 35 million doses in 2022 to about 70 million doses last year. When supplies were scarce, vaccines had to be deployed first to areas where outbreaks were actually occurring, but as production volumes have increased, the strategy of administering vaccines in advance to high-risk areas has once again become feasible.

The $87.69 million contract isn’t the whole story… UNICEF’s “on-demand orders”

When examining EuBiologics Co., Ltd.’s cholera vaccine sales, a key point to note is UNICEF’s ordering method.

The value of EuBiologics Co., Ltd.’s contract to supply cholera vaccines to UNICEF this year is $87,696,000 (118 billion won). At first glance, it may appear that this year’s supply volume was fully finalized at the beginning of the year.

However, the actual structure is different.

After signing a medium- to long-term supply contract with UNICEF, EuBiologics Co., Ltd. receives a so-called “Order Letter” at the end of each year, which outlines the estimated volume needed for the following year. Simply put, it is an annual demand guideline that UNICEF provides to the manufacturer, stating, “We will need roughly this much next year, so please prepare for production.”

However, this Order Letter itself is not an actual purchase order. Rather than a legally binding, confirmed order, it is closer to a forecast provided in advance to enable the manufacturer to draw up production plans. Based on this, the manufacturer prepares for the production of bulk vaccine and finished products, and subsequently supplies the vaccine whenever orders are received from UNICEF in accordance with actual cholera outbreaks and vaccination plans in each country.

Therefore, the cholera vaccine business is not one where a volume determined at the beginning of the year is mechanically delivered over 12 months. Instead, it operates on a structure where anticipated volumes are prepared in advance, and actual orders are placed frequently based on the outbreak situation.

Historical data shows that there were discrepancies between order letters and actual supply volumes.

An official from EuBiologics Co., Ltd. explained, “We receive an order letter at the end of the previous year, prepare that volume, and then supply the vaccine when actual orders come in,” adding, “In the past, approximately 80% of the volume specified in the order letter resulted in actual supply.”

Ultimately, what matters more than the $87,696,000 supply contract itself is how many actual orders will come in during the remainder of the year. This is why it is noteworthy that vaccination campaigns have resumed even as global stockpiles remain below the benchmark level.

Orders Concentrated

in

Q3–Q4; Capable of Handling Up to 90 Million Doses The third and fourth quarters

are the peak season when demand for cholera vaccines is concentrated.

According to the company, orders for cholera vaccines are typically higher in the third and fourth quarters than in the first and second quarters. The company explained that orders tend to be relatively concentrated in the second half of the year due to a combination of seasonal factors in Africa, cholera outbreaks, and increased vaccination rates.

An official from EuBiologics Co., Ltd. stated, “Order volumes are usually very high in the third and fourth quarters,” adding, “We receive relatively more orders in the second half of the year than in the first and second quarters.”

An even more significant change concerns production capacity.

In the past, EuBiologics Co., Ltd. was sometimes unable to fulfill all orders not because of insufficient demand, but due to insufficient production capacity. Prior to the launch of UbiCol-S and the expansion of its manufacturing facilities, order volumes exceeded the company’s supply capacity, leaving production facilities effectively operating at “maximum capacity.”

UbiCol-S has largely resolved this bottleneck.

Based on the existing UbiCol-Plus, the production capacity for bulk vaccine was approximately 33 million doses per plant. Simply adding up Plants 1 and 2 brings the total to about 66 million doses. UbiCol-S improved production yield by about 40%, raising the maximum production capacity to approximately 90 million doses.

Actual supply volumes are already increasing rapidly. Cholera vaccine supply, which stood at 22.47 million doses in 2021, expanded to 30.05 million doses in 2022, 31.64 million doses in 2023, and 37.19 million doses in 2024, reaching 60.30 million doses last year. This represents an increase of approximately 2.7 times in just four years.

The company currently estimates global demand for oral cholera vaccines at approximately 60 to 70 million doses annually. Having secured the capacity to handle up to 90 million doses, the likelihood of missing out on orders due to insufficient production capacity—as has happened in the past—has significantly decreased.

This is why changes in the global cholera vaccine market are so important to EuBiologics Co., Ltd. As of last year, 97.3% of the company’s total revenue came from cholera vaccines. If the decline in international stockpiles, the resumption of vaccination programs, and the seasonal increase in orders during the second half of the year lead to an actual expansion in orders, the impact is likely to be reflected directly in the company’s core revenue without passing through other business segments.

EuBiologics Co., Ltd. official emphasized, “In the past, order volumes exceeded our supply capacity, so we were unable to meet all demand. However, following improvements in the yield of UbiCol-S and the expansion of our production facilities, we now have the production capacity to handle up to 90 million doses.”