[Edaily Reporter Kim Hyung-il ] KB Securities forecasts that next year’s sales prices for High-Bandwidth Memory (HBM) at SamsungElectronics(005930)will rise by more than 100% year-over-year. The firm analyzed that HBM4 is likely to be contracted at the highest price level among the three DRAM manufacturers, and that the competitiveness of next-generation HBM technology and the potential for expanded shareholder returns will serve as catalysts for a revaluation of the company’s value.

On the 7th, Kim Dong-won, Head of Research at KB Securities, stated that SamsungElectronics’ HBM4 is highly likely to be contracted at the industry’s highest price level. While HBM has traditionally been sold under long-term, fixed-price contracts spanning one year—which have failed to fully reflect the steep price increases seen in general-purpose DRAM—he projected that HBM4 will mark the beginning of a significant rise in the average selling price (ASP).

In particular, he projected that the share of SamsungElectronics’ HBM4 sales would expand from 40% this year to 80% next year. Accordingly, he estimated that HBM sales prices in 2027 would rise by more than 100% compared to the previous year.

The report also projected that the company will be able to secure technological leadership in next-generation artificial intelligence (AI) memory technology. SamsungElectronics has established a concrete technology roadmap, ranging from the HBM5 architecture—which utilizes 1c core dies and 2-nanometer base dies—to zHBM, the next-generation HBM. zHBM is a next-generation solution capable of dramatically increasing bandwidth while addressing heat dissipation issues; its importance is expected to grow significantly as AI accelerators undergo performance enhancements.

Furthermore, SamsungSecurities noted that SamsungElectronics possesses comprehensive supply capabilities spanning base dies, interposers, packaging, and HBM, enabling it to provide diverse solutions tailored to individual customer needs. It identified this as a key competitive advantage that will allow the company to secure technological leadership in next-generation AI memory platforms.

The possibility of expanded shareholder returns was also cited as a catalyst for a stock price revaluation. KB Securities estimated that, assuming 110 trillion won in remaining funds for shareholder returns from 2024 to 2026, returns totaling 70 trillion to 80 trillion won in cash dividends and 30 trillion to 40 trillion won in share buybacks and cancellations would be possible.

The firm estimated that the next shareholder return policy could potentially exceed the current level of 50% of free cash flow (FCF). In particular, even if the company were to maintain the same 50% of FCF for shareholder returns over the next three years, SamsungElectronics’ total shareholder returns are projected to more than quadruple compared to current levels.