[Edaily Reporter Shin Ha-yeon ] Amid the KOSPI and KOSDAQ both triggering circuit breakers the previous day, overnight gains in KOSPI 200 futures have raised hopes for a rebound in the domestic stock market on the 16th. With U.S. Treasury yields falling and the New York stock market closing higher, conditions have been set for a rebound driven by buying on the dip following the previous day’s sharp decline. Analysts in the securities industry note that, given lingering concerns over the profitability of artificial intelligence (AI) investments and funding, it remains to be seen whether foreign selling pressure will subside.

According to MP Doctor on the 16th, the KOSPI closed at 5,554.22 the previous day, having plummeted 454.59 points (7.57%). As inflationary pressures in the U.S. compounded by concerns over credit risks at AI companies, selling pressure surged—particularly in the semiconductor sector—and circuit breakers were triggered simultaneously in both the KOSPI and KOSDAQ markets for the first time since July 29.

However, overnight, the KOSPI 200 night futures contract closed at 894.90, up 3.90% from the previous trading day. The MSCI Korea Stock Market Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) initially fell 6.33% in response to the KOSPI’s sharp decline but narrowed its losses during the session, ultimately closing down 2.26%.

In addition, external conditions improved somewhat overnight. On the 15th (local time), the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.08% on the New York Stock Exchange, while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 0.33% and 0.08%, respectively. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note fell to 5.086%, marking its largest single-day drop since August 1, which provided some relief to the stock market.

Today, the domestic stock market is expected to see a tug-of-war between rebound buying following the recent sharp sell-off and caution regarding the AI sector. Key factors to watch include the extent of gains at the opening bell, the trading direction of foreign investors in spot and futures markets, and whether the rebound in SamsungElectronics(005930)and SK hynix(000660)holds throughout the trading session.

Lee Kyung-min, an analyst at DaishinSecurities, stated, “While the KOSPI’s 12-month forward price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) is below 4.5x—a historic low—it is difficult to determine the index’s bottom based solely on valuation appeal due to the widening discount rate on stocks caused by rising interest rates and weakening confidence in the 2027–2028 earnings outlook for semiconductor companies.” He emphasized, “Until macroeconomic pressures ease or subside, a selective approach is necessary, focusing on sectors with clear earnings visibility and undervaluation.”

Securities industry experts, while leaving open the possibility of a technical rebound following the recent series of sharp declines, assessed that a sustained recovery would require a lull in foreign selling and a restoration of confidence in the earnings and fundraising capabilities of AI companies.

Han Ji-young, an analyst at KIWOOM Securities, noted in a report released that day, “Amid a 3.9% rally in KOSPI overnight futures, the market is expected to attempt a rebound driven by bargain-hunting following record-level oversold conditions,” adding, “Considering past instances of seven consecutive trading days of sharp declines, we are now in a range where the expected value of a technical pullback has significantly increased relative to the risk of further declines.”

It was also noted that there is no need to overinterpret recent volatility as a crisis affecting the entire AI industry. Kim Byung-yeon, an analyst at NH INVESTMENT & SECURITIES, stated in an emergency analysis report, “We view this as a phase of reassessing the credit risk of vulnerable companies with weak cash generation or those rated CCC or lower,” adding, “Secured bonds, AI platform companies with strong cash generation, and investment-grade bonds remain relatively robust, and the overall credit situation in the U.S. is stable.”

He went on to say, “Rather than viewing this as a crisis for the entire AI industry, we need to identify companies that can withstand delays in profit generation amid high interest rates.” He explained that differentiation is emerging among companies: while interest rates on CoreWeave’s unsecured bonds are rising, rates on some secured bonds and Big Tech bonds are falling.

On the other hand, some point out that it is difficult to be certain the market has bottomed out based solely on the fact that stock prices have fallen sharply. Kang Jin-hyuk, an analyst at Shinhan Investment Securities, noted, “The KOSPI has fallen for seven consecutive days, recording a cumulative decline of 20.7 percent,” adding, “Looking at past instances of sharp declines, such drops did not necessarily signal a rebound.”

He further explained, “While the global financial crisis and the pandemic were cases where swift policy responses led to a successful rebound, the dot-com bubble, the U.S. credit rating downgrade, and the European debt crisis did not follow that pattern.” He added, “In particular, the dot-com bubble is a case similar to the current situation, where earnings per share (EPS) estimates were revised upward before and after the sharp decline, but the index was weighed down by strong downward pressure on the price-to-earnings ratio (PER).”

He emphasized, “Resolving concerns about AI-related capital constraints or the sustainability of earnings around this earnings season is a prerequisite for preventing a long-term deleveraging similar to what occurred in the past.” This implies that even if corporate earnings forecasts remain intact, the index could continue to underperform if the valuation multiples assigned by investors decline.