[Edaily Reporter Choi Oh-hyun ] While Samsung Display and LG Display are aiming to improve their third-quarter earnings, driven by increased shipments of mobile organic light-emitting diode (OLED) panels, the outlook is increasingly suggesting that their results will fall short of market expectations. Although panel supply has expanded due to the launch of Apple’s iPhone 18 series and SamsungElectronics’ new foldable phones, this growth is being offset by a combination of a weakening won-dollar exchange rate, downward pressure on panel prices, and slowing demand for IT devices such as laptops.

According to market research firm UBI Research on the 20th, Samsung Display’s OLED shipments for smartphones and foldable phones in the third quarter of this year reached 91.35 million units, a 7.8% increase from the previous quarter. LG Display’s shipments surged 51.1% to 23.05 million units. The combined market share of the two companies is projected to reach 58.7%, surpassing the combined 41.3% share held by six major Chinese manufacturers.

Last year, OLED sales accounted for 61% of LG Display’s annual revenue, marking an all-time high. The share of OLED revenue, which stood at just 32% in 2020, has continued to grow, reaching 40% in 2022 and 55% in 2024. Among all panels, IT and mobile panels account for more than 70% of revenue. It is estimated that small- and medium-sized OLEDs, primarily for smartphones, account for 80–90% of Samsung Display’s total revenue.

UBI Research analyzed that the increase in LG Display’s panel shipments was driven by the mass production of Apple’s new products. Among LG Display’s total mobile OLED shipments in the third quarter, panels for the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max accounted for approximately 70% of all mobile OLED shipments. At Samsung Display, shipments of rigid OLEDs and flexible OLEDs for SamsungElectronics drove the increase in shipment volume.

However, industry observers believe that despite the increase in mobile OLED shipments, third-quarter profitability will fall short of initial expectations. Exchange rates are one of the key variables. This is because display manufacturers, which have a high proportion of exports denominated in U.S. dollars, may see their won-denominated revenue and profits decline when the won appreciates. Shinhan Investment Securities estimated that the decline in operating profit due to the falling exchange rate amounted to approximately 100 billion won.

In addition, the sharp rise in memory semiconductor prices has increased cost pressures on smartphone and laptop manufacturers, heightening pressure on panel suppliers to lower their prices. Analysts suggest that while sales volume has increased due to new product launches, the profits panel manufacturers can secure may be limited. For LG Display, its high debt burden—totaling 12 trillion won as of the end of the second quarter—also acts as a burden.

Market expectations are gradually declining. According to financial information provider FnGuide Inc., the consensus estimate for LG Display’s third-quarter operating profit stands at 259.1 billion won, representing a projected 39.8% year-over-year decline. This marks a 33.3% and 48.5% decrease, respectively, compared to the operating profit forecasts of 388.6 billion won and 502.8 billion won made one month and three months ago. Samsung Display is also expected to see a year-over-year decline in third-quarter operating profit. Samsung Display posted an operating profit of 1.2 trillion won in the third quarter of last year. It is estimated to have reached around 1 trillion won in the third quarter of this year.

However, there remains room for earnings improvement as supplies for Apple’s first foldable phone begin and the fourth-quarter peak season effect takes full hold. UBI Research forecasts that LG Display’s fourth-quarter mobile OLED shipments will reach their highest level this year. Additionally, the firm analyzed that Samsung Display is expected to benefit from the launch of Apple’s first foldable phone, the iPhone Duo, in the fourth quarter. Meanwhile, LG Display will announce its third-quarter earnings on the 22nd. Samsung Display’s results will be disclosed as part of SamsungElectronics’ final earnings announcement on the 29th, under the segment-by-segment business performance section.