[Edaily Reporter Kim Sung-kon ] While the Democratic Party of Korea has recently been voicing extreme claims—such as the introduction of artificial intelligence (AI) judges and the impeachment of Supreme Court Chief Justice Cho Hee-dae—in protest of the acquittal of Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon in the second-instance trial, public opinion shows that support for these claims outweighs opposition.
According to the regular survey for the fifth week of October (100% wireless ARS; margin of error ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level) released by the Korea Society Opinion Institute (KSOI) on the 28th, 45.5% of respondents “agreed” with Mayor Oh’s acquittal in the second-instance trial, while 39.1% “did not agree.” The gap between agreement and disagreement was 6.4 percentage points, slightly outside the margin of error. “Don’t know” responses accounted for 15.3%.
Mayor Oh Se-hoon has made a political comeback after the first-instance guilty verdict—which included a 10 million won fine and a sentence resulting in the loss of his mayoral office—was overturned. Although a final ruling by the Supreme Court is still pending, some observers are even assessing that he has effectively shaken off his legal risks and is now in the most advantageous position among potential presidential candidates across both the ruling and opposition parties. Even key potential candidates from the conservative camp—including his prospective rivals such as People Power Party Chairman Jang Dong-hyuk, independent lawmaker Han Dong-hoon, and Reform Party lawmaker Lee Jun-seok—are sending enthusiastic messages of support to Mayor Oh. Within and outside the People Power Party, there is even talk of the possibility of a so-called “Oh Se-hoon faction,” centered on pro-Oh lawmakers Kwon Young-jin, Cho Eun-hee, and Eom Tae-young.
The Democratic Party has reacted with outrage over the acquittal in the second-instance trial in an effort to “check Oh Se-hoon.” The key issues are the introduction of AI judges for rulings on political cases and the push to impeach Supreme Court Chief Justice Cho Hee-dae. At a Supreme Council meeting on the 26th, Democratic Party Supreme Council member Choi Min-hee stated, “A bus driver loses his job over an 800-won coffee mix, yet Mayor Oh and the privileged elite are found not guilty even after exchanging tens of millions of won?” She proposed, “Let’s start by introducing AI judges for political cases.” Supreme Council member Seo Mi-hwa also applied pressure, stating, “Just as the reversal and remand of President Lee Jae-myung’s Public Official Election Act case was a declaration of political interference, the Cho Hee-dae judiciary has effectively and intentionally fueled the ‘Oh Se-hoon presidential bid’ narrative.” She added, “Whether the increasingly intense calls for impeachment become a reality depends on the Cho Hee-dae judiciary.”
What is particularly noteworthy in this KSOI poll are the detailed indicators. When broken down by generation, opinions in favor were in the majority across all age groups except for those in their 40s (38.8% in favor vs. 50.3% opposed) and 50s (36.9% in favor vs. 51.0% opposed)—both of which constitute the Democratic Party’s core support base. In particular, among those in their 60s (51.4% in agreement vs. 39.2% in disagreement) and those aged 70 and older (51.4% in agreement vs. 28.6% in disagreement)—who constitute the core support base of the People Power Party—the proportion of respondents in agreement exceeded the majority. Furthermore, among those in their 20s (agree 48.7% vs. disagree 28.8%), the percentage of respondents who agreed was nearly twice as high as those who disagreed.
By region, support was relatively high in almost all areas nationwide, with the exception of Honam, the Democratic Party’s stronghold. In Seoul, Mayor Oh’s stronghold (50.5% in favor vs. 36.9% opposed), and in Daegu and North Gyeongsang—the heartland of the conservative movement (56.5% in favor vs. 31.4% opposed)—support exceeded the majority. In addition, with the exception of South Jeolla, Gwangju, and North Jeolla (agree 21.5% vs. disagree 64.0%), support was high in Gyeonggi and Incheon (agree 45.8% vs. disagree 39.1%), Daejeon, Sejong, and Chungcheong (agree 48.4% vs. disagree 30.8%), and Busan, Ulsan, and South Gyeongsang (agree 46.9% vs. disagree 36.4%)—with the exception of Gwangju and South Jeolla—public opinion in favor of the statement was also predominant.
By political party affiliation, while opinions were sharply divided among Democratic Party supporters (agree 10.0% vs. disagree 78.5%) and People Power Party supporters (agree 78.6% vs. disagree 11.0%), the “agree” sentiment also held a 21.5-point lead among those without party affiliation (agree 43.9% vs. disagree 22.4%). Ideologically, opinions were also diametrically opposed between conservatives (agree 77.2% vs. disagree 17.5%) and progressives (agree 14.5% vs. disagree 73.6%), but among moderates, public opinion was evenly split at “agree 42.6% vs. disagree 42.8%.”
A KSOI official commented, “Since Mayor Oh, having largely resolved his legal risks, has secured a majority of supportive opinions in Seoul—his political base—he is expected to launch a full-scale presidential campaign.” The official added, “Above all, within the People Power Party, calculations regarding the leadership structure following Representative Jang Dong-hyuk’s tenure are expected to become more complex, and attention is also focused on the realignments across the entire conservative camp, including Representative Lee Jun-seok of the Reform Party and independent Representative Han Dong-hoon.”
