[Edaily Reporter Kim Hyung-il ] Meritz Securities projected that while DOOSAN TESNA(131970)’s third-quarter earnings will fall short of market expectations, performance will improve starting in the fourth quarter due to the mass production of new products and a recovery in shipment volumes for key products. The firm maintained its “Buy” rating and slightly raised its target price to 169,000 won.

On the 12th, Kim Dong-gwan, an analyst at Meritz Securities, projected that DOOSAN TESNA’s third-quarter revenue would total 77 billion won, an 8% year-over-year decline, while operating profit would fall 37% to 3.3 billion won. He forecast an operating profit margin of 4.3%.

He anticipated a slight decline in revenue compared to the previous quarter due to intensifying competition in the mobile image sensor (CIS) market and the seasonal off-peak period. He noted that the System-on-Chip (SoC) division is facing a seasonal off-peak period. Additionally, he assessed that a portion of Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) chip production was brought forward to the second quarter, and estimated that after a decline in July and August, production rebounded starting in September.

In contrast, the company projected that the memory controller segment would grow by more than 100% compared to the previous quarter, driven by increased volume for enterprise solid-state drives (eSSDs) and extended testing periods.

Earnings are expected to recover starting in the fourth quarter. The analysis suggests that the recovery in ADAS volumes and improved seasonality in mobile demand will be further bolstered by the mass production of the new low-power processor (LPU). The LPU is expected to complete equipment installation in October 2026 and begin mass production in November. It is projected to be partially reflected in fourth-quarter revenue and fully reflected in annual earnings in 2027.

The CIS test line for North American customers is projected to begin mass production as early as April 2027, following equipment installation in March of that year. DOOSAN TESNA is also expected to handle wafer testing for the next-generation ADAS chips that the customer will mass-produce starting in the second half of 2027. In addition to the LPU, new CIS, and next-generation ADAS chips, demand for memory controller testing—which is showing growth—is expected to remain robust. Operating profit in 2027 is estimated to increase by 255% year-over-year.

Analyst Kim explained, “Despite short-term earnings weakness, the mass production schedules for LPUs and CIS chips from new clients remain on track, so there is no change in the medium- to long-term growth trajectory,” adding, “Our existing testing track record with foundry clients and the proactive expansion of our new production facility in Pyeongtaek will work in our favor in securing initial volumes of new products.”

He continued, “The spillover effect from foundry clients due to TSMC’s severe supply shortage remains valid,” and predicted, “As new product orders from clients and the company’s entry into the outsourced semiconductor assembly and test (OSAT) value chain become more concrete, the stock price is expected to trend upward.”