[New York = E-Daily Correspondent Seong Joowon, Beijing = Correspondent Lee Myung-cheol, Reporter Kim In-kyung] Interpretations are divided regarding the possibility of resuming U.S.-North Korea talks following North Korean State Affairs Commission Chairman Kim Jong-un’s surprise visit to China. South Korean diplomatic authorities focused on the possibility that North Korea and China discussed U.S.-North Korea talks, while state-run think tanks analyzed that China’s incentive to mediate has increased. In contrast, a U.S. expert on the Korean Peninsula assessed that it is unlikely China will take on an active mediating role. However, given that the actual content of the discussions between North Korea and China has not been confirmed, some point out that it is difficult to conclude that this visit to China was intended as preliminary coordination for a U.S.-North Korea summit.

Foreign Minister Cho Hyun stated on the 27th during a comprehensive parliamentary audit by the National Assembly’s Foreign Affairs and Unification Committee that regarding the possibility of discussions on U.S.-North Korea talks during Chairman Kim’s visit to Dandong, China, on the 24th, “I believe it is possible.” He made this remark after noting that Ma Zhaoxu, Executive Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs and an expert on U.S. diplomacy, was among the Chinese attendees. However, Minister Cho drew a line, stating, “It is still too early to make a definitive conclusion.”
Unification Minister Jeong Dong-young also characterized the visit as “summit diplomacy without a summit.” He explained that while Chairman Kim did not meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping, the large-scale attendance of diplomatic officials from both sides makes it difficult to view the visit as a mere economic event.
The state-run Institute for Unification Studies also raised the possibility of preliminary coordination for U.S.-North Korea talks. Jeong Eun-i, Director of the North Korea Research Division at the Institute for Unification Studies, analyzed in a report on the 26th that China now has a stronger incentive to seek a mediating role in U.S.-North Korea talks ahead of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Summit.
Director Jeong assessed that China’s continued high-level communication with North Korea’s top leader served as an opportunity to demonstrate its influence over issues on the Korean Peninsula. However, he explained that neither North Korea’s nor China’s official statements mentioned U.S.-North Korea talks.

The perspective of U.S. experts is relatively cautious. Sidney Siler, a senior advisor at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), assessed in a webcast on the 27th that the observation that China is mediating the U.S.-North Korea summit and advising Chairman Kim on negotiation strategies is “one of the less likely scenarios at this point.”
Siler, who previously served as the National Intelligence Officer for North Korea at the U.S. National Intelligence Council (NIC), expressed skepticism about the likelihood that China would shoulder significant diplomatic burdens to facilitate U.S.-North Korea talks. He also offered a cautious outlook on the possibility of a U.S.-North Korea summit taking place within the year.
Sylor analyzed that Chairman Kim intends to reaffirm the historical ties between North Korea and China by highlighting the sacrifices of Chinese troops during the Korean War, while simultaneously managing relations with Russia. He described this as a move to strengthen North Korea’s diplomatic standing by leveraging both of its allies, China and Russia.

It remains uncertain whether this visit to China will lead to U.S.-North Korea dialogue. Regarding Chairman Kim’s visit, the Chinese Foreign Ministry merely stated its principled position that the development of North Korea-China relations is a firm policy, without disclosing the circumstances of the visit or the specific details of the discussions.
South Korea’s diplomatic role is also a variable. Director Jeong warned of the possibility of “bypassing South Korea,” noting that direct U.S.-North Korea dialogue or China-led mediation could narrow South Korea’s diplomatic and security maneuvering room.
Foreign Minister Cho stated that a U.S.-North Korea summit could serve as an opportunity to break the deadlock on the Korean Peninsula, and pledged to work toward South Korea playing the role of “pace-setter” while the U.S. acts as the “peacemaker.” The challenge now is to explore the possibility of U.S.-North Korea dialogue while securing South Korea’s role in the actual negotiation process.