According to Reuters and The New York Times (NYT), among others, exit polls released by major broadcasters immediately after polls closed at 10 p.m. (local time in Israel) projected that the opposition, led by former Israeli Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot, would secure 52 to 55 seats, while Prime Minister Netanyahu’s coalition of right-wing and religious parties would secure 50 seats.
By broadcaster, Channel 12 projected 52 seats for the opposition and 50 for the ruling coalition; Channel 13 projected 53 seats for the opposition and 50 for the ruling coalition; and the public broadcaster Kan projected 55 seats for the opposition and 50 for the ruling coalition. The Israeli Knesset has a total of 120 seats, and a minimum of 61 seats is required to form a government.
The Likud Party, led by Prime Minister Netanyahu, was found to have a narrow lead over Eisenkot’s Yashar Party when considered as a single party. However, the right-wing coalition as a whole secured fewer seats than the opposition. Arab parties are expected to secure a combined total of about 17 seats, emerging as a key variable in the formation of a future coalition government.
This election was the first general election held since Hamas’s attack on Israel on October 7, 2023. Prime Minister Netanyahu emphasized his leadership during the war and his cooperative relationship with U.S. President Donald Trump. In contrast, Eisenkot held the government accountable for failing to prevent the Hamas attack and called for changes in how the country is run.
Voter turnout was high. According to Israel’s Central Elections Committee, the turnout rate stood at 74.3% as of 8:00 p.m.—two hours before polls closed—marking the highest level for that time of day since 1988. In particular, the high turnout among Arab voters drew attention.
The key issue moving forward is the formation of a coalition government. Since Israel uses a proportional representation system based on party lists, the combined number of seats held by parties capable of forming a coalition is more important than the number of seats held by any single party. Options being discussed include the Eisenkot camp cooperating with Arab parties or major parties setting aside their existing political differences to engage in coalition negotiations. However, negotiations are expected to be difficult due to the significant differences in the political stances of the various parties.
Final vote counts are expected to be tallied by the 30th, and the official results are scheduled to be announced on November 4. Subsequently, President Isaac Herzog will consult with party leaders and grant the mandate to form a coalition to the figure deemed most likely to succeed. The first nominee will have up to 42 days to form a coalition government.
The direction of the new government is expected to influence policies toward the Gaza Strip and the West Bank, as well as the war with Iran and relations with the United States. While President Trump publicly supported Prime Minister Netanyahu, Eisenkot emphasized that the U.S. president would cooperate with whoever the Israeli people choose as their leader.
