[Edaily Reporter Kim Kyung-eun ] Analysts say that SamsungElectronics(005930)has already secured 80% of its planned memory semiconductor production volume for next year through long-term supply contracts, increasing visibility into its earnings growth. With prices for High-Bandwidth Memory (HBM) and general-purpose DRAM rising in tandem, operating profit is projected to reach 555 trillion won next year.

Kim Dong-won, Head of Research at KB Securities, stated in a report on the 20th, “With SamsungElectronics having secured 80% of its 2027 memory production volume through long-term supply contracts, and with prices for both HBM and general-purpose DRAM rising in tandem, it is estimated that profit growth next year is virtually guaranteed.”

According to SamsungSecurities, SamsungElectronics is estimated to have signed five-year long-term supply agreements (LTAs) with global big tech clients for 70% of its planned production volume of general-purpose memory, such as DRAM and NAND flash, for next year. Analysis also indicates that supply agreements have been finalized for the entire annual production volume of HBM, centered on HBM4. Competition among global hyperscalers (large-scale data center operators) continues to secure the remaining 20% of the volume for which contracts have not yet been signed.

The expansion of HBM4 supply is expected to drive memory price increases next year. KB Securities forecasts that SamsungElectronics’ average selling price (ASP) for HBM will rise by 100–150% next year compared to this year. With HBM4 prices set at the industry’s highest levels, they are expected to lead the rise in DRAM prices starting in the first quarter of next year. Accordingly, DRAM prices in the first quarter of next year are also expected to see a double-digit increase compared to the previous quarter.

“SamsungElectronics’ HBM4 is expected to deliver industry-leading speeds (11.7–13 Gbps) and bandwidth (3.3 TB/s), while also improving power efficiency by 40% compared to HBM3E,” said Division Head Kim. “Based on this, the share of HBM4 within total HBM sales is projected to double from 40% in 2026 to 80% in 2027,” he predicted.

Earnings are also expected to improve significantly, driven by expanded memory supply contracts and rising prices. SamsungSecurities estimated that SamsungElectronics’ operating profit, which rose 742% year-over-year to 367 trillion won this year, will increase by 51% to 555 trillion won next year.

Analysts attribute the recent sharp decline in the stock price largely to a contraction in investor sentiment driven by macroeconomic uncertainty rather than a deterioration in earnings. SamsungElectronics’ stock price has fallen 19% this month, a steeper decline than that of Taiwan’s TSMC (-2%) over the same period. This is interpreted as the result of doubts about the sustainability of artificial intelligence (AI) investments combined with concerns over rising interest rates.

Director Kim explained, “We believe the recent stock price correction stems from a valuation adjustment and a contraction in investor sentiment driven by macroeconomic uncertainty, rather than a deterioration in SamsungElectronics’ fundamental profit-generating capacity.” He added, “While stock price volatility may increase in the short term due to macroeconomic variables, the likelihood that next year’s profit growth trajectory—supported by volumes secured through long-term supply contracts and rising memory prices—will be undermined is limited.”